What Happens If TikTok Gets Banned? A Social Media Manager’s Opinion.

TikTok is wildly popular. It is the leading short-form video social platform and has contributed over $24 billion to the U.S. economy in 2024 alone. In fact, TikTok is credited with the rise of popularity in short-form video content. But the social media landscape is about to change. As you’ve inevitably heard, TikTok has been given until January 19th to sell to a U.S.-based company, or the Supreme Court intends to ban the platform in the U.S. While appeals have been filed, and many users argue that it violates their freedom of speech, those appeals have been dismissed, and those complaints fell on deaf ears. TikTok seemingly doesn’t want to sell and has asked the Supreme Court to strike down or delay the pending law. The question on everyone’s mind is, what happens if TikTok does get banned in the U.S.?

Fearing a TikTok ban, many U.S. TikTok users have started making accounts on the platform’s sister app, Lemon8. Lemon8 is a newer social platform that is very similar to TikTok, with short-form videos as the primary focus. Rednote is another app recently becoming popular amidst talks of TikTok possibly being banned. As of January 13th, Rednote is the #1 app on the Apple App Store. Rednote is a Chinese-owned app that seems like a TikTok clone with its UI and features. Since both Lemon8 and Rednote are both owned by Chinese developers, who knows how long they will be available in the U.S.?

I believe TikTok will, unfortunately, get banned on January 19th. Lemon8 and Rednote will be the short-term solutions people immediately turn to, but, like TikTok, they could also be banned. Ultimately, Instagram reels will fill the space that TikTok currently occupies. While reels have been somewhat popular, Meta will likely take this opportunity to further enhance their short-from video features to try and drive more users to create content on Instagram. With these expected changes, a focus on reels, and the recent introduction of Threads, it seems that Meta could be in an even more powerful position close to a monopoly in the social media space.

TikTok creators should start leaning into and focusing on Instagram reels. While Lemon8 and Rednote are options, they may be temporary solutions. It is doubtful either could replace TikTok and it seems inevitable they will face the same fate as their predecessor. Bottom line – a TikTok ban will be a social media loss for the foreseeable future.